Objective performance, measured continuously
Every manager and club has an ELO rating. Ratings start at 1500, which represents performance in line with expectations. After each match, the rating moves up or down depending on how surprising the result was, with older matches decaying in influence over time, so the ratings reflect sustained long-term performance.
A manager's ELO stays with them across jobs. It does not reset when they move between clubs or leagues. A rating built at a mid-table Championship club carries into the Premier League, and future results are judged relative to that starting point. This creates a continuous record of performance across every role they have held, where the rating adjusts over time as more evidence is observed.
Independent signals, one rating
Each manager's ELO is built from independent signals, each capturing a different dimension of performance relative to context. Each signal asks a distinct question: how did this manager perform relative to what was expected of them, given the resources and circumstances they were working with?
Using independent signals reduces variance and produces a more stable and consistent rating over time. It also reflects a deliberate choice in how the model is designed. Much of football analytics has shifted toward combining large numbers of metrics into composite scores, which can make outputs flexible enough to fit a narrative or justify a decision that has already been made. The signals we use capture the most meaningful dimensions of performance in context. The goal is not to maximise complexity, but to focus on measures that remain robust across leagues, squads, and time.
A tool for smarter manager recruitment
Clubs can use TouchlineAlpha to identify promising managers flying under the radar, or to evaluate a shortlist of candidates in a more structured way before making an appointment.
The ratings go beyond a single number. Because they are tracked continuously over time, they show not only where a manager ranks today, but how their performance has changed across recent seasons and across their full career. A manager coming off a strong season may have a long history of underperforming results. Equally, a well-regarded manager may have been quietly underperforming for years, struggling to adapt as the game has evolved around them. Reputation and current form do not always point in the same direction.
Performance can also be broken down by individual tenure. This allows clubs to see exactly where and when a manager performed at their best, and under what circumstances. Was the success tied to a particular type of club, a specific league context, or a level of resource? Does that profile match the hiring club? The ratings cannot guarantee future performance, but they give clubs a much stronger basis for judging whether a manager is likely to replicate their success in a new environment.
38 leagues. 25+ years. Updated weekly.
We cover professional leagues across Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Oceania, with data going back to 2000 for the major competitions. A manager in the J-League is rated using the same method as one in the Premier League, so comparisons across leagues are directly possible. The ratings already account for the different expectations that come with each role, depending on the club and the league, which means performance is evaluated relative to context rather than raw results alone.