Football intelligence that goes beyond results. TouchlineAlpha rates every manager and club using a dynamic ELO system built on two signals: performance relative to market expectations, and points earned relative to squad value.
Explore RankingsHow do you objectively rate a football manager? Clubs are constantly making high-stakes hiring decisions, yet evaluating a manager's true impact is messy. Results alone don't tell the full story, but they are often treated as if they do. TouchlineAlpha is built to solve exactly this problem, providing an evidence-based rating for every manager separating noise from actual managerial contribution.
All managers and clubs start with an ELO of 1500, the system's performance baseline, representing performance in line with market expectations and squad value. Ratings update dynamically after every match, with scores above 1500 signalling outperformance and scores below signalling underperformance.
The core idea is simple: wisdom of the crowd. By aggregating bookmaker odds and removing margins, we get consensus probabilities for match outcomes. From there, we measure how consistently a manager over- or underperforms expectations. One upset is noise. Sustained overperformance is signal.
Markets, however, adapt. So the model also incorporates a budget efficiency component, using points relative to squad value. This balances managers working with vastly different resources, rewarding both those who deliver with elite squads and those who outperform with limited ones.